EUTECNIQ Sciences

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Computational science & AI Proposal · nothing built Methods peer-reviewed Synthetic illustrations

Computational models would rank, flag and predict for scientists to test, and a larger model would follow only measured gains

How EUTECNIQ proposes to use computational chemistry, mechanistic models and machine learning on botanical data it has the right to use: provenance, testing, governance and the funding gate for each stage.

Status. EUTECNIQ has no trained model, proprietary dataset or benchmark result. Everything below is a proposed program; the evaluation charts use synthetic data to show how testing would work.

Related: why quantum chemistry for solvent screening · COSMO-RS versus COSMO-SAC (and against measured solubility) · digital lab

13 → 171PubMed records a year on machine learning for natural products, 2015 to 2025
6 → 191the same for herbal, botanical and medicinal-plant research
294papers in 17 fields affected by data leakage in one survey
37provenance fields each record would carry (proposed)

NCBI E-utilities counts, retrieved October 24, 2026 (queries on this page); Kapoor and Narayanan, Patterns 2023; provenance table on this page.

Overview

Three layers of computation would support decisions: physics-based chemistry, narrow predictive models, and later a shared multimodal model

Physics first

Quantum chemistry and solvent screening

Density-functional calculations and COSMO-SAC rankings of solvents, with the full computational record and where measured solubility disagrees.

Read the record →
First narrow model

Botanical Intelligence: models M1 to M5

A hybrid mass-transfer and machine-learning model for extraction yield, its test against simpler methods, and its month-24 stop rule.

See the program →
Mechanistic models

Process engineering and scale-up

Transport, balance and scale-up models that set the physics a learned model would have to respect.

Open the calculators →
Data would pass provenance and rights checks before any model; every output would go through human review, and some decisions never reach a modelProposed architecture
Proposed data architecture: EUTECNIQ's own paired measurements, public resources under their terms and customer data under contract pass through provenance, rights review, datasheets, Part 11 controls and leakage-safe splits; then physics-based, mechanistic and narrow predictive models, with a shared multimodal model only later; outputs inform ranking, flags and predictions through human review and never decide release, safety, claims or regulatory category1 · Data sources2 · Curation3 · Models4 · DecisionsEUTECNIQ's own pairedmeasurementsSpectra, chromatograms,barcodes, process histories andstability results from the sameauthenticated lots, in LIMS andelectronic notebooksPublic resourcesPubChem, ChEMBL, COCONUT,LOTUS, NPASS, GNPS/MassIVE,MassBank, BOLD, GenBank,PubMed, each under its own termsCustomer dataOnly with written permission,segregated by contract, excludedfrom shared models unless agreedCurationProvenance on every record:lot, method, instrument,licenseRights reviewed by counsel; asource with unclear rights isexcludedA datasheet for every trainingset21 CFR Part 11 controls wherePart 111 requires the recordSplits by species, lot andtime, so no test data leak intotrainingPhysics-based chemistryDensity-functional calculations;COSMO-SAC solvent rankingsMechanistic modelsTransport, balance and scale-upphysicsNarrow predictive modelsOne target each, M1 to M5; M1 isthe hybrid extraction-yield modelShared multimodal modelLater, only if each gate passes onmeasured dataWould inform, with stateduncertaintyRank candidates for testingFlag possible adulteration for avalidated methodPredict with intervals, or abstainPropose the next experimentRetrieve evidence; every sentencecites a sourceHuman review and QA sign-offWould never decideRelease or reject a lotReach a safety or GRAS conclusionGenerate health or marketing claimsDecide a regulatory categoryTrain on customer data without awritten agreementProposed data architecture from data sources through curation and models to the decisions they may and may not inform1 · Data sourcesEUTECNIQ's own paired measurementsSpectra, chromatograms, barcodes, process historiesand stability results from the same authenticated lots,in LIMS and electronic notebooksPublic resourcesPubChem, ChEMBL, COCONUT, LOTUS, NPASS,GNPS/MassIVE, MassBank, BOLD, GenBank, PubMed,each under its own termsCustomer dataOnly with written permission, segregated by contract,excluded from shared models unless agreed2 · CurationProvenance on every record: lot, method,instrument, licenseRights reviewed by counsel; a source with unclearrights is excludedA datasheet for every training set21 CFR Part 11 controls where Part 111 requires therecordSplits by species, lot and time, so no test data leakinto training3 · ModelsPhysics-based chemistryDensity-functional calculations; COSMO-SAC solventrankingsMechanistic modelsTransport, balance and scale-up physicsNarrow predictive modelsOne target each, M1 to M5; M1 is the hybridextraction-yield modelShared multimodal modelLater, only if each gate passes on measured data4 · Decisions, after human review and QA sign-offWould informRank candidates for testing; Flag possible adulterationfor a validated method; Predict with intervals, orabstain; Propose the next experiment; Retrieveevidence; every sentence cites a sourceWould never decideRelease or reject a lot; Reach a safety or GRASconclusion; Generate health or marketing claims;Decide a regulatory category; Train on customer datawithout a written agreement
As proposed on this page: data types and provenance, training-data rights, evaluation, regulated decisions and roadmap. Part 11 applies where Part 111 requires the record (21 CFR 111.605(c)). Nothing here is built.
Text version: what EUTECNIQ and partners would do, and what EUTECNIQ does not claim
EUTECNIQ would
  • Capture paired, authenticated data with provenance from the first sample
  • Benchmark every model against simpler baselines on held-out botanicals
  • Keep every quality and safety decision with qualified people and validated methods
Proposed
Qualified partners would
  • Provide independent test sets and blind evaluations
  • Review data licensing and privacy terms (counsel)
  • Supply compute under contract, where needed
External partner
EUTECNIQ does not claim
  • Any trained model, accuracy figure or benchmark result
  • A proprietary dataset or foundation model
  • That any model output is accepted by FDA
Limits
  • A research prediction≠a release or safety decision
  • A benchmark score≠validation for a context of use
  • A larger model≠a more accurate model
  • Publicly visible data≠a right to train on it
  • A pattern in training data≠a mechanism
Explanation, details and sources

Physics-based methods estimate molecular properties before any experiment. Narrow models, each with one target, would learn from EUTECNIQ's own designed experiments. A larger model that reads many data types together comes last, if it is justified at all.

Research activity

Machine-learning studies of natural products and botanicals are growing fast but remain under half a percent of machine-learning records in PubMed

PubMed records per year, 2010–2025: toggle a series or switch the scaleNCBI data, our query
NCBI PubMed, E-utilities esearch counts by publication year ([dp]), title and abstract fields, retrieved Oct 24, 2026. On the log scale, years with zero records are not drawn. Counts depend on the query wording and indexing and change over time; they measure publication activity, not quality or results.
Data table and query strings
PubMed records per publication year
YearNatural productsHerbal, botanical or medicinal plantsDietary supplementsAll machine-learning records
20104202,152
20117202,455
201211112,616
20134703,093
20147413,465
201513644,145
201641005,133
2017131456,891
20181123210,971
20192614416,677
20204632524,745
20216066636,434
202276631047,357
202387651151,840
2024101111760,244
20251711912678,401
  • Natural products: ("machine learning"[tiab] OR "deep learning"[tiab] OR "neural network"[tiab] OR "neural networks"[tiab]) AND ("natural product"[tiab] OR "natural products"[tiab])
  • Herbal, botanical or medicinal plants: ("machine learning"[tiab] OR "deep learning"[tiab] OR "neural network"[tiab] OR "neural networks"[tiab]) AND (herbal[tiab] OR botanical[tiab] OR "medicinal plant"[tiab] OR "medicinal plants"[tiab])
  • Dietary supplements: ("machine learning"[tiab] OR "deep learning"[tiab] OR "neural network"[tiab] OR "neural networks"[tiab]) AND ("dietary supplement"[tiab] OR "dietary supplements"[tiab])
  • All machine-learning records: ("machine learning"[tiab] OR "deep learning"[tiab] OR "neural network"[tiab] OR "neural networks"[tiab])

Natural-product records rose from 13 in 2015 to 171 in 2025 and herbal or botanical records from 6 to 191, still about 0.2% of the 78,401 machine-learning records.

Data types and provenance

Every record would carry its lot, method, instrument and license, because a model can only be as traceable as its data

37 provenance fields across eight record types: select a type to see what each record would carryProposed record schema
Fields as listed in the data-type table below. How the laboratory would capture them: Digital lab and traceability.

Spectra carry the most context: a mass spectrum without its instrument, ionization mode and collision energy cannot be compared with another.

Show the table (8 rows)
Data typeWhat it describesProvenance that would be recordedMain pitfalls
Molecular structuresConstituents as atoms and bondsSource database and version, or the lot and method that elucidated the structure; stereochemistry confidenceUnconfirmed annotations treated as facts; duplicate structures under different names
Mass spectra (MS/MS, high resolution)Fragment masses and intensitiesLot ID, instrument, ionization mode, collision energy, acquisition method version, processing software and parametersSpectra from different instruments and energies are not directly comparable
NMR spectraChemical shifts, couplings, integralsLot ID, solvent, field strength, temperature, referencing, processing parametersSolvent and referencing differences shift peaks
Chromatograms (UV, MS, HPTLC)Signal against retention timeLot ID, column and mobile phase, method version, system suitability result, integration settingsRetention times drift between columns and laboratories; alignment is required
DNA barcodesSpecies-level identity of the source plantVoucher specimen, marker region, primers, sequencing run, reference library and versionProcessed extracts may contain little intact DNA; DNA does not show chemistry
Process sensor dataTemperatures, pressures, flows over timeBatch record ID, equipment ID, sensor calibration status, time baseUncalibrated sensors; time stamps out of sync
Quality and stability resultsAssay, impurities, physical tests over timeLot, storage condition, pull point, validated method ID, analyst reviewResults below the quantitation limit handled inconsistently
Literature and regulatory textPublished findings, monographs, guidanceCitation, version and date, license of the full textPublication bias; retracted papers; text licensed for reading but not for training
Explanation, details and sources

Provenance is the documented origin and processing history of a record. Without it, a prediction cannot be traced back to evidence, a data error cannot be found, and a licensing problem cannot be fixed.

Records generated in regulated work would be kept under 21 CFR Part 11 controls where Part 111 requires the record (21 CFR 111.605(c)): validated systems, limited access and secure, time-stamped audit trails.

Integration

Structures, spectra, chromatograms and text would meet in one representation through records of the same authenticated lot

Proposed multimodal model: encoders, shared representation, task heads and the evidence-retrieval pipelineArchitecture schematic
Component basis: message-passing graph networks for molecules (Gilmer et al. 2017, ICML); learning structure information from MS/MS spectra (Dührkop et al. 2019, Nat Methods, SIRIUS 4); ITS2 barcodes for medicinal plant identification (Chen et al. 2010, PLoS ONE); aligning paired data types in one embedding space by contrastive training (Radford et al. 2021, ICML); retrieval-augmented generation (Lewis et al. 2020, NeurIPS). Whether these methods transfer to botanical data at useful accuracy is the hypothesis each gate tests.
Show component details
ComponentWhat it doesStatus
Molecular structures → Message-passing graph networkConstituents represented as graphs: atoms are nodes, bonds are edges. Sources: COCONUT, LOTUS, PubChem, ChEMBL and EUTECNIQ's own elucidated structures. Message passing over atoms and bonds learns a vector per molecule (Gilmer et al. 2017, ICML).Proposed
MS/MS spectra → Spectrum encoderFragment ions (m/z) and intensities from LC-MS/MS and LC-HRMS. Public sources: MassBank, GNPS/MassIVE; plus EUTECNIQ's authenticated reference lots. Encodes fragment peaks; published tools already learn structure information from MS/MS (Dührkop et al. 2019, SIRIUS 4).Proposed
NMR spectra → NMR peak-list encoder¹H and ¹³C chemical shifts, multiplicities and couplings; used for structure confirmation and whole-extract profiles. Encodes peak lists or binned spectra so they can be compared with structures and other measurements of the same lot.Proposed
Chromatograms → 1-D signal encoderRetention-time signals (UV, MS, densitometry) used for fingerprints, marker assays and batch comparison. One-dimensional convolutions or attention over chromatographic traces; aligned retention times are a prerequisite.Proposed
DNA barcodes → Sequence encoderShort standardized gene regions for species identification; ITS2 was validated for medicinal plants by Chen et al. 2010. Reference sequences: GenBank, BOLD. DNA identifies the source species, not the chemistry of a processed extract. Encodes barcode sequences as k-mer profiles or token sequences for species-level identity.Proposed
Process sensor data → Time-series encoderSensor histories from extraction, evaporation and drying runs, linked to batch records and lot results. Summarizes run histories (heating, solvent ratio, drying) for yield and quality prediction.Proposed
Literature and rules → Language-model text encoderPubMed citations and licensed full texts, pharmacopoeial monographs, FDA guidance and regulations; also the source of the knowledge graph. Turns passages into vectors for search and for linking entities (species, constituents, studies) into the knowledge graph.Proposed
Shared representationOne vector per lot; paired records of the same lot aligned by contrastive training; applicability-domain check before any answer.Proposed
Identity and adulteration screeningFlags lots that look inconsistent with authenticated references. A flag triggers confirmatory testing; it never releases or rejects a lot.Proposed
Property predictionPredicted physicochemical properties with prediction intervals, or an abstention outside the applicability domain.Proposed
Extraction-yield predictionLearned features passed to the mass-transfer hybrid model on the Botanical Intelligence tab, which remains the baseline to beat.Proposed
Formulation-stability predictionRanks formulations for real stability studies. A prediction is not stability data and never sets a shelf life.Proposed
Interaction flagsHighlights constituents with reported CYP or transporter effects for expert review. Flags are hypotheses for testing, not conclusions.Proposed
Evidence retrieval for dossiersStarts the retrieval pipeline: find, draft, verify citations, then human review.Proposed
Scientific knowledge graphLinks species, plant parts, constituents, studies, hazards and regulations, built from LOTUS/Wikidata, PubMed, monographs and FDA documents, with the source of every link stored.Proposed
RetrieverSelects passages and graph facts relevant to the question (retrieval-augmented generation, Lewis et al. 2020).Proposed
Language modelDrafts an answer conditioned on the retrieved passages; it is not asked to answer from memory.Proposed
Citation verifierMatches every sentence to the passage it cites; sentences without support are removed and logged.Proposed
Cited draftA draft with sources attached, handed to a qualified scientist. It is never filed or published without review.Proposed
Human review and QA sign-offEvery output reviewed by a qualified scientist; regulated records also need quality-unit approval; audit trail of inputs, model version and output.Proposed policy
Explanation, details and sources

Each data type has its own encoder. Paired records of one lot are trained to land close together (contrastive alignment), so a spectrum can retrieve its likely structure and a chromatogram its likely species. Text enters through retrieval: the model answers only from retrieved passages, and every sentence is checked against its source.

Why one shared representation. The same sample can be measured many ways. If a spectrum, a chromatogram and a barcode from one authenticated lot are aligned, a model trained on abundant data of one type may help where another type is scarce. That benefit is plausible but unproven for botanicals, which is why the plan tests it against narrow models before scaling.
Training data and rights

Large public resources exist, but each has its own terms, and none contains paired, authenticated measurements of the same lots

Record counts were checked on October 22, 2026 against each resource's own page or latest database paper. The units differ, so the bars show scale, not comparable quantities.

Public scientific resources by number of records (log scale)Verified counts · Oct 22, 2026
PubMed: NLM, About PubMed ("more than 40 million citations"). PubChem: Kim S et al. PubChem 2025 update, Nucleic Acids Res 2025;53(D1):D1516–D1525 (119 million compounds). ChEMBL: EMBL-EBI, "ChEMBL 36 is live", Oct 15, 2025 (2.8 million distinct compounds). LOTUS: Rutz A et al. eLife 2022;11:e70780 (750,000+ referenced structure–organism pairs). COCONUT: statistics page, coconut.naturalproducts.net/stats (738,795 unique molecules, accessed Oct 22, 2026). NPASS: version 3.0, June 15, 2025 (204,023 natural products). MassBank: Neumann S et al. Nucleic Acids Res 2025, gkaf1193 (119,845 spectra of 18,529 compounds). "More than" values are plotted at their stated lower bound.

Terms from: NCBI website and data usage policies; GenBank overview; ChEMBL interface documentation (general questions); COCONUT About page; Rutz et al. 2022 (LOTUS); NPASS home page; Neumann et al. 2025 (MassBank); BOLD citation page. All accessed October 22, 2026. This is a summary, not legal advice.

Own data, customer data and datasheets (also shown in the data-architecture figure above)
Most valuable data

EUTECNIQ's own paired measurements

Spectra, chromatograms, barcodes, process histories and stability results from the same authenticated lots, captured in LIMS and electronic notebooks from day one. Public data cannot supply these pairings.

Planned
Customer data

Only under contract, never by default

Customer samples and results would be used for model training only with written permission, segregated by contract, and excluded from shared models unless the agreement says otherwise.

Policy proposal
Documentation

A datasheet for every training set

Each dataset would record its origin, collection method, license, known gaps and intended uses, following the datasheets-for-datasets practice (Gebru et al. 2021).

Practice peer-reviewed
Explanation, details and sources

What each source would contribute, and the terms that govern it

Terms are quoted from each provider's own pages. Where a provider's page does not state terms, the table says so; those sources would be reviewed by counsel before any commercial training use.

SourceContentsTerms of use (as stated by the provider)Proposed use in the model
PubChemChemical structures, identifiers and deposited bioassay resultsNCBI places no restrictions on its own data, but PubChem incorporates depositor material that may be protected by copyright; reproduction and commercial use must follow the holder's termsStructure pretraining; identifier mapping
ChEMBLBioactivity data curated from the literatureCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported. Property calculations derived from commercial software should not be extracted in isolation to train models intended to replicate the commercial processActivity and target context for interaction flags
COCONUTOpen collection of natural-product structures with names, organisms and organism partsCurated dataset under CC0 (public-domain dedication); software under MIT licenseNatural-product chemical space
LOTUSStructure–organism pairs with literature references, hosted on WikidataCC0, per the LOTUS paperSpecies–constituent links for the knowledge graph
NPASSNatural-product activities, species sources and composition dataNot stated on the home page; confirm before commercial useCandidate activity context, after terms are confirmed
GNPS / MassIVEPublic MS/MS datasets, spectral libraries and molecular networksNot verified here; confirm per library and datasetSpectrum-encoder pretraining, after terms are confirmed
MassBankCurated reference mass spectraEvery record carries explicit license informationReference spectra filtered by record license
BOLDDNA barcode records and specimen dataSite states "© BOLD Systems. All Rights Reserved" and gives record-level citation formats; confirm before useBarcode reference set, after terms are confirmed
GenBankNucleotide sequences, including ITS2, rbcL and matK markersNCBI places no restrictions on use or distribution; some submitters may claim patent, copyright or other rightsBarcode reference sequences
PubMedCitations and abstracts of biomedical literatureNLM does not claim copyright on abstracts; journal publishers or authors mayRetrieval index with links to sources; full texts only where licensed
Evaluation

A model is judged on botanicals it has never seen, against independent benchmarks, and it must say when it does not know

Random split versus held-out botanicalsIllustration
Squares are samples, colors are species, outlined squares are test samples. Invented layout for illustration.
Applicability domain: predict inside it, abstain outside itSynthetic data
A defined domain of applicability is principle 3 of the OECD principles for validating (Q)SAR models (agreed November 2004). The points are a synthetic two-dimensional projection, not real data.
Calibration: does a stated 80% confidence come true 80% of the time?Synthetic data
Reliability diagram and expected calibration error (ECE) as used by Guo et al. 2017, ICML (temperature scaling). Both curves are invented to show the reading; they are not EUTECNIQ results.
Coverage: do prediction intervals contain the true value as often as promised?Synthetic data
Split-conformal intervals guarantee average coverage when calibration and test data are exchangeable (Angelopoulos & Bates, arXiv:2107.07511). A new species can break exchangeability, which is why coverage is checked on held-out botanicals. Curves are invented for illustration.
Method, assumptions and limits: applicability-domain illustration
What it calculates
For 14 synthetic query points, whether each lies inside the applicability domain, defined as a distance to its fifth-nearest training sample below the threshold.
Equations
Euclidean distance in the two-dimensional projection; threshold = 0.25 + 1.35 × slider/100 (synthetic units).
Assumptions
108 synthetic training points from three Gaussian clusters (fixed seed); a real model would measure distance in its own learned representation.
What it does not establish
It shows how abstention works; it says nothing about any real model's domain or accuracy.
Verification
Independent Python reference (scipy k-d tree nearest neighbors) in tests/numerics/ref/technologies-computational-science-ai.py.

Kapoor S, Narayanan A. Leakage and the reproducibility crisis in machine-learning-based science. Patterns. 2023;4(9):100804. Schymanski EL, et al. Critical Assessment of Small Molecule Identification 2016: automated methods. J Cheminform. 2017;9:22. Sheridan RP. Time-split cross-validation as a method for estimating the goodness of prospective prediction. J Chem Inf Model. 2013;53(4):783–790. Wu Z, et al. MoleculeNet: a benchmark for molecular machine learning. Chem Sci. 2018;9:513–530. Gebru T, et al. Datasheets for datasets. Commun ACM. 2021;64(12):86–92. Mitchell M, et al. Model cards for model reporting. FAT* 2019:220–229.

Explanation, details and sources

Random splits let the same species, lot or replicate appear in training and test sets, which inflates scores. Held-out botanicals, independent test sets, a defined applicability domain and calibrated uncertainty are the minimum before any output informs a decision.

RiskWhat goes wrongProposed control
Data leakageInformation from the test set reaches training: duplicates, replicate injections of one lot, the same species, preprocessing fitted on all data, or future data used to predict the pastSplit by species, lot and time; fit preprocessing on training data only; leakage checklist before every evaluation (Kapoor and Narayanan 2023)
Weak benchmarksA model is compared only with itself or with a straw-man baselineCompare with the strongest simple baseline (library search, PLS chemometrics, gradient boosting, the mechanistic model) and, where they exist, public challenges such as CASMI for compound identification
No independent testThe team that trained the model also chose the test setBlind test sets assembled or held by a partner laboratory; prospective tests on lots that arrive after the model is frozen (time-split validation, Sheridan 2013)
BiasTraining data over-represent some species, regions, suppliers, instrument vendors or published resultsReport coverage by subgroup in the datasheet; report errors by subgroup in the model card; abstain outside covered groups
DriftNew suppliers, harvest seasons, method changes or instrument replacements move inputs away from training dataMonitor input distributions and performance on control samples; retrain or restrict under change control
OverconfidenceStated probabilities or intervals do not match observed frequenciesCalibration and coverage checked on held-out botanicals, as in the charts above
Automation biasPeople accept an output because a model produced itHuman scientific review of every output; disagreement logged; no output enters a regulated record without quality-unit approval
Regulated decisions

Predictive research and regulated decisions would stay separate: a model can propose a test, never replace one

Risk-based credibility assessment: seven steps, with model risk set by influence and consequenceSteps verified · draft guidance
U.S. FDA. Considerations for the Use of Artificial Intelligence to Support Regulatory Decision-Making for Drug and Biological Products. Draft guidance, January 2025, Docket FDA-2024-D-4689; not for implementation. Model risk combines model influence and decision consequence; the three-level matrix is an illustration of that combination.
Explanation, details and sources

FDA's January 2025 draft guidance on AI to support regulatory decision-making for drugs and biologics sets out a seven-step credibility assessment; it excludes AI used in drug discovery or for operational efficiency. EUTECNIQ would adopt its steps as a design standard; adopting them does not make any output FDA-accepted.

DecisionWho decidesThe model's allowed role
Release or reject a lotQuality unit, on validated test resultsNone; a flag can trigger an extra confirmatory test
Identity of a raw materialQualified analyst, on validated identity methodsScreening flag only
Safety conclusionQualified toxicologists and expertsEvidence retrieval with citations, for expert review
Which experiments to run nextScientistsRank candidates with stated uncertainty
Shelf lifeStability data and the quality unitRank formulations for real stability studies
Risk management

NIST AI Risk Management Framework 1.0

Published January 26, 2023 for voluntary use; organized in four functions: Govern, Map, Measure and Manage. A Generative AI Profile (NIST AI 600-1) followed on July 26, 2024. NIST states the framework is being revised.

Verified
Records

21 CFR Part 11 wherever FDA requires the record

Electronic records required under Part 111 must comply with Part 11 (21 CFR 111.605(c)): validated systems, limited access and secure, time-stamped audit trails. Model inputs, versions and outputs that enter such records would be kept the same way.

Regulation verified
Reporting

A model card for every released model

Intended use, out-of-scope uses, training and evaluation data, metrics by subgroup and known limitations, following Mitchell et al. 2019. Datasheets describe the data; model cards describe the model.

Practice peer-reviewed
Simple versus large

A larger model would be justified only if it beats the strongest simple method on held-out botanicals at equal data

Simple, well-understood methods often perform well on small scientific datasets and are easier to validate. A larger model earns its cost only by a measured gain.

All four conditions must hold before a larger model is built; any failure keeps the strongest simple methodProposed decision rule
A larger multimodal model would be justified only if all four conditions hold: several data types describe the same lots, the gain over the best baseline holds on held-out botanicals, uncertainty is calibrated with a defined domain, and every source has documented rights; any failure keeps the strongest simple method, and four situations rule it outAll four conditions must hold1Several data types describe the same lots, and transferbetween them helps where one type is scarce2The gain over the best baseline holds as data grow and acrossheld-out botanicalsYes3Uncertainty is calibrated and the applicability domain isdefinedYes4Every training source has documented rightsYesLarger model justified for that taskThen a credibility plan for one defined context of use, QA approval and amodel cardYesKeep the strongest simple methodLibrary search or PLS on spectra; gradient boosting or Gaussianprocesses; the mass-transfer model with classical design ofexperiments; keyword and citation search by a scientistNoNoNoNoA larger model also does not make sense whenA single data type and a simple baseline already meet theneedToo few paired, authenticated records for held-out evaluationThe decision it would inform cannot tolerate an unvalidatedoutputCompute and governance cost exceed the value of thedecisionFour conditions for a larger multimodal model, the fallback and four situations that rule it outAll four conditions must hold1. Several data types describe the same lots, andtransfer between them helps where one type isscarce2. The gain over the best baseline holds as datagrow and across held-out botanicals3. Uncertainty is calibrated and the applicabilitydomain is defined4. Every training source has documented rightsIf all holdLarger model justified for that taskThen a credibility plan for one defined context of use,QA approval and a model cardIf any failsKeep the strongest simple methodLibrary search or PLS on spectra; gradient boosting orGaussian processes; the mass-transfer model withclassical design of experiments; keyword and citationsearch by a scientistA larger model also does not make sense whenA single data type and a simple baseline alreadymeet the needToo few paired, authenticated records for held-outevaluationThe decision it would inform cannot tolerate anunvalidated outputCompute and governance cost exceed the value ofthe decision
Baselines as in the table above. Context of use, QA approval and model card: roadmap gate G5 below.
Text version: when a larger model makes sense, and when it does not
When a larger model makes sense
  • Several data types describe the same lots, and transfer between them helps where one type is scarce
  • The gain over the best baseline holds as data grow and across held-out botanicals
  • Uncertainty is calibrated and the applicability domain is defined
  • Every training source has documented rights
When it does not
  • A single data type and a simple baseline already meet the need
  • Too few paired, authenticated records for held-out evaluation
  • The decision it would inform cannot tolerate an unvalidated output
  • Compute and governance cost exceed the value of the decision

Wold S, Sjöström M, Eriksson L. PLS-regression: a basic tool of chemometrics. Chemom Intell Lab Syst. 2001;58(2):109–130. No performance figures are claimed for any model on this page.

Explanation, details and sources
TaskStrong simple baselineWhat a larger multimodal model would have to show
Spectral identity screeningLibrary search; PLS discriminant analysis on spectraFewer misses on species absent from the library, with calibrated confidence
Property predictionGradient boosting or Gaussian processes on molecular descriptorsLower error on held-out scaffolds and natural-product classes
Extraction yieldThe mass-transfer model plus classical design of experimentsA measured gain over that hybrid on an unseen botanical (gate G1)
Evidence retrievalKeyword and citation search by a trained scientistEqual or better recall, with every sentence verified to its source
Roadmap and funding gates

Each stage would be funded only after the previous one passes its gate on measured data; failing a gate stops the spending and keeps the data

Gates use measured results, not dates. Thresholds would be proposed to the board before each stage starts; none is set yet.

From one narrow model to a shared multimodal model, gate by gateProposal
M1 to M5 are the models on the Botanical Intelligence roadmap. The shared pilot and the larger model are later options, not commitments; no size, cost or schedule is claimed.
What models would and would not do (also shown in the data-architecture figure above)
Would

Decision support with stated uncertainty

  • Rank candidate botanicals, solvents and formulations for testing
  • Flag possible adulteration for confirmation by a validated method
  • Predict properties and yields with intervals, or abstain outside its domain
  • Propose the next experiment for scientists to approve
  • Retrieve evidence and draft dossier sections in which every sentence cites a source, for expert editing
Would not

Anything that replaces accountable people or validated methods

  • Reach a safety conclusion or a "generally recognized as safe" judgment
  • Release or reject a lot, or replace a validated identity or potency test
  • Generate health, structure–function or marketing claims
  • Decide a product's regulatory category or pathway
  • Train on customer data without a written agreement
Stop rules carry over from Botanical Intelligence. If the first model shows no measured gain by month 24, AI spending stops. The same logic would apply at every later gate: no measured gain on held-out botanicals, no next stage.
Explanation, details and sources
StageSpending released whenEvidence reviewedStop rule
M1 hybrid extraction modelDesigned-experiment data from the laboratory existGain over physics alone and classical design on an unseen botanicalNo gain by month 24: AI spending stops; data kept
M2–M5 narrow modelsM1 passes G1 and data rights are documented (G2)Each model against its strongest baselineUnclear rights: the source is excluded
Shared-representation pilotEnough paired, authenticated records for held-out evaluation (G3)Pilot against the narrow models, with calibrationNo gain: keep the narrow models (G4)
Larger multimodal modelThe pilot gain holds as data growCredibility plan for one defined context of use; QA approval; model card (G5)Inadequate for that use: not used for that decision

Discuss a data or modeling collaboration

Partners with authenticated botanical data, independent test sets or a defined prediction problem can describe it; EUTECNIQ would respond with a proposed evaluation plan and its limits.